On Their Way Down

For the second year in a row, fewer Law School Admission Tests were administered than in the year before.  In fact, about 25 percent fewer LSATs were administered in 2011-2012 than in 2009-2010, the peak year for the test.

Since people, generally, take the LSAT only if they plan on applying to law school, a drop in the number of people taking the test means fewer law school applications.  So, the number of law school applications has dropped just as precipitously.

While two years of decline isn't normally seen as a long-term trend, it's hard not to see the past two years as a harbinger of things to come.  Thanks to people like Nando, Professor Campos and Subprime JD, some who might have applied to law school in previous years now realize that the legal profession and industry are in serious, possibly irreversible, decline.  For too long, too many law schools have been graduating too many people into an economy that has far too few jobs for them.  Not only is law not the ticket to wealth, or even a middle-class life, that people had previously envisioned; going to law school can also be financial suicide, as there are essentially no law schools that charge fewer than five figures in tuition, and a few schools are in the 50G range.  Worst of all, those debts are not dischargable.

If you've been reading this or other blogs, as well as articles in the New York Times and a few other mainstream media outlets, you already know about the situation I've described. 

You have also read the scenarios of what could happen if the trend continues.  Some expect that fourth-tier, and possibly third-tier (and even lower second-tier), schools will admit applicants with lower LSAT scores and GPAs.  That could send their reputations and rankings spiraling even further downward, which would dry up their applicant pools and lead some of them to close up shop.

On the other hand, some argue that most of those who opt not to take the test would have scored lower than those who take it.  That argument has merit, and, interestingly, could also lead to a shrinkage in the applicant pool, which could cause some schools to close.

Those who have observed the situation agree that fewer people going to law school won't necessarily lead to more or better opportunities for those who go.  For one thing, many of the jobs that have been lost won't come back, no matter how much the economy improves.  As an example, much discovery work is now being done in India and other places.  Plus, the law profession and industry are undergoing all sorts of changes that will render certain skills--and lawyers-- obsolete.  Finally, many of the industries that used to hire lawyers or use legal services have been hit hard by the recession and, if they recover, they will be different (in some cases, dramatically so) from the way they were before crises  that began around 2007.


I don't want to spend too much more time discussing the LSAT, law schools or the legal profession, as the bloggers and reporters I've mentioned, as well as others in and outside the industry, know more about it than I, most likely, ever will.  However, the drop in LSATs and law school applications is interesting in light of a parallel, and possibly related development.


It seems that some of the so-called elite undergraduate institutions have also been experiencing serious declines in their applications.   To be  sure, a few of the best schools have experienced surges. As an example, the University of Chicago has sixteen percent more applications than it had last year. However, applications to Columbia University decreased by nearly nine percent, and the University of Pennsylvania as well as other schools at or near the top of the rankings also reported significant drops in the number of applicants.


Some of the decrease in applications has been explained by the fact that Harvard, Princeton and a few other high-level schools have reinstated early action (a.k.a. early admissions) programs after scrapping them several years ago.  Such programs don't require students to enroll if they're admitted. However, they prohibit students from applying to like programs in other colleges.  Columbia and Penn retained their early-admissions programs during the years Harvard and Princeton abandoned theirs.  During that time, Columbia and Penn were among the schools with the highest percentage of early-admits in their freshman classes.


Even so, Harvard's applications decreased by two percent from last year's levels.  On the other hand, Chicago saw its number of applications skyrocket after instituting an early-admissions program for the first time in its history.


There are all sorts of explanations for the declines among some of the elite institutions.  All of them include equally stunning increases in applications to the best state universities like the University of California at Los Angeles, the University of Virginia and the University of Michigan at Ann Arbor.  However, those increases don't account for the increased popularity of Chicago and some other schools.


Could it be that part of the attraction of Chicago is that it has been seen as, arguably, even more "exclusive" than the Ivies or small liberal arts colleges like Swarthmore and Amherst?  Or, could it be that Chicago is more of a "niche" school than the Ivies or some of the other "elite" schools?  If either perception is true, it might give graduates and edge when they apply to graduate, law or medical schools (as a large percentage of graduates do) or jobs.  Then, perhaps, degrees from other elite schools aren't quite as special, at least in some people's perceptions.


But I think there is still an even more important question to ask.  Will the decrease in the number of applications at "elite" schools trickle down to the less-expensive schools that don't have the status of UCLA, UVA or Michigan?  Might high-school seniors and their families realize--as some who, in earlier years, might have applied to law school are now realizing--that the degrees they'd earn simply won't cut much ice in today's tundra-like employment landscape?  If they do, then they just might realize that the costs simply aren't worth it, especially if student loan debt remains non-dischargable.